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"The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030, no country, the US, China or any other large country, will be a hegemonic power." This is an important judgment the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US reached in Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, released on December 10, 2012. Though the report professed to supply only a framework for considering future possibilities rather than projecting into the future, it does not deny this could be a trend of world development over the next 15 to 20 years, a key to deciding whether the world will be at peace or not in the future. First of all, world peace depends on whether the main powers maintain peace among themselves. Historically, a primary factor determining international security has been the balance of world strategic powers and the strategic relations of major powers, the core of international relations. This explains why a structural change of the world order, i.e., the balance of forces of great powers, has become a focus of international concern following the end of the Cold War.
1. Brief History of the "Polar Pattern"
"Pole" as a concept is not reckoned to be compatible with "harmony" But it has well and truly found a place in Chinese compatibility culture. The north and south poles of the earth are opposite and far apart geographically. In the science of electricity, the positive and negative poles mark the level of electric potential. "Pole" invariably means inequality. So far, however, the study of the world order has clung to the Western concept of "pole." In the traditional theory of international relations, "pole" means a relatively independent power center with comprehensive strength and influence. The law of unbalanced development decides that the world is in a dynamic order. In traditional theories, the world powers and their relative strengths are always in a state of change. When quantitative change reaches a critical point, the relatively stable structure that contributes to the formation of the world
order is damaged, resulting in sequence translocation and element reorganization, till a new pattern is formed. In different historical periods, major powers or country groups have been in various stages of balance of power to form different world orders. Based on the general conclusions of international relations history studies, a historical study of the "pole" helps us to identify the trend of world order.
